Climate, Weather and Fire/Fuels Update: July 11, 2022

Climate

South Shore mesonet station. Week of July 11, 2022. Courtesy: Mesonet at SDState

Much of South Dakota received plenty of precipitation for the week. The big winners were areas along the Grand River in northwestern South Dakota and across east central South Dakota, where generally 1.5 to 3 inches of rain fell. Precipitation was much spottier across the southern tier of South Dakota counties and in/around the Black Hills. These areas saw from 0.25 to 1.00 inches of rain. Temperatures were 1 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit above average for all of South Dakota.

The USDM continues to show D0 Abnormally Dry to D3 Extreme Drought over southeastern South Dakota. West-central to southwestern South Dakota are showing D0 to D2 Severe Drought. Northwestern, northeastern, and east-central South Dakota remain free of drought.

~Darren Clabo, South Dakota Mines

Weather

Forecast Highlights: High temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the 80s statewide. Moderate Northwest winds are expected today, with light/variable winds tomorrow. Minimum RH will range from 20 to 30%. Temperatures will warm into the 80s/90s tomorrow, with 90s and some low 100s likely on Thursday. South to southeast winds are expected Wednesday, but a weak front will move into the state Thursday. Winds will be southerly ahead of the front and northwesterly behind the front. Minimum RH will range from 15 to 25% on Wednesday, and from 10 to 25% on Thursday. A couple of showers/thunderstorms are possible Thursday night. Friday and Saturday will likely see highs in the 80s/90s, while Sunday warms back into the 90s to lower 100s. Minimum RHs will stay below 25%, driest on Sunday. Winds should generally remain below 25 mph through the period.

Potential for Critical Conditions: Hot and dry conditions are expected this week, but a lack of wind will keep conditions from being critical.

~Darren Clabo, South Dakota Mines

Fire/Fuels

Regional RAWS ERCs values. Updated Sunday, July 10, 2022.

Herbaceous fuels throughout most of South Dakota are green, and fire behavior would be minimal. Southwestern South Dakota (Fall River and Oglala Lakota Counties) along with eastern Pennington County south of Wasta are the exception. Wheat fields are curing and would carry fire. The 1000-hour fuels are at or below average for this time of year. Fires in the timber fuel models could pose some resistance to control, especially if wind and slope come in alignment. With the hot temperatures forecast for later in the week, fuel moistures should decrease significantly.

~Jay Wickham, South Dakota Wildland Fire

Next Update: Monday, July 18, 2022